Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 21.422726 25.734858 30.476420 36.048787 42.388852 49.348603 57.536046
2025-08-17 15.127085 20.774474 27.617267 36.393135 47.215234 59.987159 76.052346
2025-08-24 11.385024 17.452893 25.398243 36.291732 50.542717 68.245170 91.557136
2025-08-31 8.526323 14.494084 22.884653 35.087873 51.879785 73.646286 103.397513
2025-09-07 7.005561 13.030870 22.031526 35.774785 55.468236 81.862668 118.987417
2025-09-14 5.513705 11.265453 20.405485 35.050989 56.876458 87.069172 130.685739
2025-09-21 4.684390 10.392147 19.956757 35.912685 60.465428 95.305616 146.711632
2025-09-28 3.574348 8.765948 18.033837 34.234684 60.088490 97.831628 154.834221
2025-10-05 3.139459 8.311036 17.989490 35.493424 64.161794 106.857558 172.392493
2025-10-12 2.719240 7.787328 17.734915 36.340438 67.592228 115.036074 188.989063
2025-10-19 2.343056 7.267463 17.402577 36.990230 70.698793 122.811075 205.225383
2025-10-26 2.043853 6.849882 17.198156 37.818449 74.103298 131.133027 222.508742
2025-11-02 1.629249 6.070360 16.227754 37.292498 75.436217 136.659385 236.379005
2025-11-09 1.351074 5.564173 15.751190 37.650129 78.320882 144.807218 254.648925
2025-11-16 1.092089 5.016679 15.083639 37.546282 80.355373 151.642323 271.099628
2025-11-23 0.821857 4.314724 13.924369 36.309864 80.240372 154.924567 282.063170
2025-11-30 0.694647 4.038520 13.728526 37.015397 83.677771 164.169992 302.711615
2025-12-07 0.532894 3.549773 12.899708 36.271980 84.337336 168.750643 316.008648
2025-12-14 0.455318 3.361836 12.824674 37.157025 88.123656 178.763263 338.368017
2025-12-21 0.320196 2.821129 11.655580 35.433439 86.714123 179.732638 345.936075
2025-12-28 0.281567 2.734625 11.784239 36.726419 91.328829 191.370855 371.444180
2026-01-04 0.239383 2.599805 11.739762 37.596323 95.128040 201.684058 395.004590
2026-01-11 0.199957 2.450531 11.619223 38.263596 98.538879 211.406010 417.813514